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Center Squeeze — STAR (ranks→scores): agrees with Condorcet, not IRV

▶ Live on BetterVoting: vote · results ↗ (election ywckmg · test BV2137) — an independent tabulator to check the winners below against.

Bucket — IRV_OUTLIER_RR_WITH_STAR: RCV-IRV is the outlier (center squeeze)

Generated by STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_divergence_index.py — rebuilt from the election file; do not hand-edit.

What happens

STAR elects Anderson — and so do Ranked Robin and Condorcet, because Anderson is the head-to-head (pairwise) winner, beating every rival one-on-one. RCV-IRV instead elects Carter: Anderson collects fewer top (first-choice) votes, so IRV eliminates Anderson early, and those ballots transfer to Carter. This is the classic center squeeze — the broadly acceptable candidate is knocked out by round-by-round elimination even though a majority prefers them in a direct matchup. Two methods (STAR + RR) against one (RCV-IRV): IRV is the outlier.

Winners by method

Method Winner
STAR Anderson
RCV-IRV Carter
Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) Anderson
Approval Anderson
Range / Score Anderson
Condorcet Anderson

Flags: none

Source election: method_comparisons/center_squeeze_bv2137/cases/bv2137_ywckmg_star.yaml · STAR tabulated mirror: bv2137_ywckmg_star_tabulated.txt

3 candidates, 100 ballots.

The ballots

Each row is a group of identical score ballots (0 = no support, 5 = max).

Count Reagan Anderson Carter
45 5 3 1
20 1 5 3
35 1 3 5

STAR result (official)

Scoring round (sum of scores): Anderson 340, Reagan 280, Carter 280

Finalists (top two): Anderson and Reagan

Automatic runoff: Anderson 55 vs Reagan 45

STAR winner: Anderson

Full LH STAR engine report:

--- Runoff (Preference) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against
        * indicates Top 2 Finalist
        Note: Carter and Reagan tied at 280 in the Scoring Round, and the
              head-to-head rung advanced Carter. The * marks who advanced, not
              who scored highest. Reagan is filtered out of this grid, so the
              head-to-head that settled it is not shown — see the Scoring
              Round.

                 |  * Anderson  |  * Carter   |
-----------------------------------------------
    * Anderson > |     ---      |65 -  0 - 35 |
      * Carter > | 35 -  0 - 65 |    ---      |

[Divergence from STAR]
  STAR                   = Anderson
  Choose-One (Plurality) = Reagan   (differs from STAR)
  RCV-IRV                = Carter   (differs from STAR)
  Note: no ballots had tied scores, so RCV-IRV vs STAR here is a genuine
        method difference, not a tie-breaking artifact.
  Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone
        outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature.

--- STAR Voting Method (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 100 ballots.
Count × Reagan,Anderson,Carter
   45 ×      5,       3,     1
   35 ×      1,       3,     5
   20 ×      1,       5,     3

[Score Distribution] (how many ballots gave each star rating)
                   Score
Candidate   5   4   3   2   1   0  | Total   Avg
Reagan     45   0   0   0  55   0  |   280   2.8
Anderson   20   0  80   0   0   0  |   340   3.4
Carter     35   0  20   0  45   0  |   280   2.8

Scoring Round
 The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round.
   Anderson      -- 340 -- First place
   Carter        -- 280 -- Tied for second place
   Reagan        -- 280 -- Tied for second place
 Anderson advances, but there's a two-way tie for second.

Scoring Round: First tiebreaker
 The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups advances.
   Carter        -- 55 -- Second place
   Reagan        -- 45
   Equal Support --  0
 Anderson and Carter advance.

Automatic Runoff Round
 The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins.
   Anderson      -- 65 -- First place
   Carter        -- 35
   Equal Support --  0
 Anderson wins.
   Voters with a preference: 100 of 100 (no Equal Support).
   Anderson 65 (65%) vs Carter 35 (35%); majority = 51.

Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)
 Anderson

RCV-IRV — round by round

--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 100 ballots (converted from score ballots; 0 = unranked, equal scores broken by candidate priority).

Ballots:
   the ranking RCV-IRV reads (0 = unranked, equal scores broken by priority);
   the source score ballot follows in () per column: Reagan, Anderson, Carter
    45 ×   Reagan > Anderson > Carter      (5, 3, 1)
    20 ×   Anderson > Carter > Reagan      (1, 5, 3)
    35 ×   Carter > Anderson > Reagan      (1, 3, 5)

ROUND 1
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Reagan            45  Hopeful
Carter            35  Hopeful
Anderson          20  Rejected

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Carter            55  Elected
Reagan            45  Rejected
Anderson           0  Rejected


Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
  Carter

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (1 of 3): Anderson
   Outside (2):        Reagan, Carter
   One member ⇒ Anderson is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
   RCV-IRV winner Carter is OUTSIDE the Smith set. ✗
      Every member of the set (Anderson) beats Carter head-to-head, yet
      RCV-IRV elected Carter anyway. RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient (nor
      Condorcet-efficient) — this is the shape a center squeeze leaves behind.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md

NOTE: a generated cross-method view of the STAR ballots, for comparison only — not the official STAR result.

Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) — every pair, head-to-head

--- Ranked Robin (RCV-RR / Copeland) Method (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 100 ballots (score ballots).

Ballots:
   the ranking Ranked Robin reads ("=" = tied); source scores follow in () per column: Reagan, Anderson, Carter
    45 × Reagan > Anderson > Carter      (5, 3, 1)
    20 × Anderson > Carter > Reagan      (1, 5, 3)
    35 × Carter > Anderson > Reagan      (1, 3, 5)

Round-Robin — every pair, head-to-head (For – Against):
   Anderson  beats Reagan     55 – 45
   Carter    beats Reagan     55 – 45
   Anderson  beats Carter     65 – 35

--- Pairwise (Round-Robin) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison — the Ranked Robin tally
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against   (row vs column)
             |    Reagan    |  Anderson   |   Carter    |
---------------------------------------------------------
    Reagan > |     ---      |45 -  0 - 55 |45 -  0 - 55 |
  Anderson > | 55 -  0 - 45 |    ---      |65 -  0 - 35 |
    Carter > | 55 -  0 - 45 |35 -  0 - 65 |    ---      |

Win–loss record — Copeland score = wins + ½·ties (highest score wins; ties broken by total margin, then lot order):
    #  Candidate  W–L–T  Copeland  Margin  Beats
    1  Anderson   2–0–0         2     +40  Carter, Reagan
    2  Carter     1–1–0         1     -20  Reagan
    3  Reagan     0–2–0         0     -20  —

Winner — Ranked Robin (RCV-RR): Anderson
   beats every opponent head-to-head — the Condorcet winner.

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (1 of 3): Anderson
   Outside (2):        Reagan, Carter
   One member ⇒ Anderson is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
   Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) winner Anderson is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
      Guaranteed: Ranked Robin (Copeland) is Smith-efficient — every member of
      the set outscores every outsider, so the top of the win–loss table is
      always inside the set, however the tie among them is then broken.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md