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Tactical maximization in STAR (2 of 2) — four voters hedge to a 5, and hand the seat to the hedge

Bucket — IRV_DIFFERS_ARTIFACT: RCV-IRV differs — tie-break artifact

Generated by STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_divergence_index.py — rebuilt from the election file; do not hand-edit.

What happens

On these ballots RCV-IRV reports Alma rather than STAR's Bruno, but this is an artifact of score→rank conversion, not a robust method difference: 4 of 9 ballots have tied non-zero scores, so their ranks are set by an arbitrary candidate-priority order; the RCV-IRV winner flips when that priority order is reversed. Ranked Robin and the Condorcet (pairwise) winner both agree with STAR (Bruno). Do not use this case to criticize RCV-IRV — the disagreement is a coin-flip created by equal scores and would vanish under a different (equally arbitrary) tie-break.

Winners by method

Method Winner
STAR Bruno
RCV-IRV Alma
Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) Bruno
Approval Bruno
Range / Score Bruno
Condorcet Bruno

Flags: 4 tied-score ballot(s); IRV winner flips under reversed priority (fragile tie); RR conversion-sensitive (weak=Bruno, strict=Alma)

Source election: 01_STAR/03_Criteria/tactical_maximization/cases/tactical_max_c3_b9_hedged.yaml · STAR tabulated mirror: tactical_max_c3_b9_hedged_tabulated.txt

3 candidates, 9 ballots.

The ballots

Each row is a group of identical score ballots (0 = no support, 5 = max).

Count Alma Bruno Celia
4 5 5 0
1 4 2 1
3 1 5 3
1 0 2 5

STAR result (official)

Scoring round (sum of scores): Bruno 39, Alma 27, Celia 15

Finalists (top two): Bruno and Alma

Automatic runoff: Bruno 4 vs Alma 1 (4 equal/no-preference)

STAR winner: Bruno

Full LH STAR engine report:

--- Runoff (Preference) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against
        * indicates Top 2 Finalist
               |   * Alma   | * Bruno   |
-----------------------------------------
      * Alma > |    ---     |1 - 4 - 4  |
     * Bruno > | 4 - 4 - 1  |   ---     |

[Divergence from STAR]
  STAR                   = Bruno
  Choose-One (Plurality) = Alma   (differs from STAR)
  RCV-IRV                = Alma   (differs from STAR)
  Note: 4 of 9 ballots (44%) had equal non-zero scores, so their ranks were
        decided by candidate priority order. The RCV-IRV result may be an
        artifact of score-to-rank tie-breaking rather than a deep
        difference.
  Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone
        outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature.

--- STAR Voting Method (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 9 ballots.
Count × Alma,Bruno,Celia
    4 ×    5,    5,    0
    3 ×    1,    5,    3
    1 ×    4,    2,    1
    1 ×    0,    2,    5

[Score Distribution] (how many ballots gave each star rating)
                Score
Candidate  5  4  3  2  1  0  | Total   Avg
Alma       4  1  0  0  3  1  |    27   3.0
Bruno      7  0  0  2  0  0  |    39   4.3
Celia      1  0  3  0  1  4  |    15   1.7

Scoring Round
 The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round.
   Bruno         -- 39 -- First place
   Alma          -- 27 -- Second place
   Celia         -- 15
 Bruno and Alma advance.

Automatic Runoff Round
 The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins.
   Bruno         -- 4 -- First place
   Alma          -- 1
   Equal Support -- 4
 Bruno wins.
   Voters with a preference: 5 of 9 (4 Equal Support).
   Bruno 4 (80%) vs Alma 1 (20%); majority = 3.

Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)
 Bruno

RCV-IRV — round by round

⚠️ This election has a fragile IRV tie (equal scores force an arbitrary tie-break). The round table below is only one realization; a different tie-break can change the winner. See the flag above.

--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 9 ballots (converted from score ballots; 0 = unranked, equal scores broken by candidate priority).

Ballots:
   the ranking RCV-IRV reads (0 = unranked, equal scores broken by priority);
   the source score ballot follows in () per column: Alma, Bruno, Celia
     4 ×   Alma > Bruno      (5, 5, 0)
     1 ×   Alma > Bruno > Celia      (4, 2, 1)
     3 ×   Bruno > Celia > Alma      (1, 5, 3)
     1 ×   Celia > Bruno      (0, 2, 5)

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Alma               5  Elected
Bruno              3  Rejected
Celia              1  Rejected


Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
  Alma

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (1 of 3): Bruno
   Outside (2):        Alma, Celia
   One member ⇒ Bruno is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
   RCV-IRV winner Alma is OUTSIDE the Smith set. ✗
      Every member of the set (Bruno) beats Alma head-to-head, yet
      RCV-IRV elected Alma anyway. RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient (nor
      Condorcet-efficient) — this is the shape a center squeeze leaves behind.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md

NOTE: a generated cross-method view of the STAR ballots, for comparison only — not the official STAR result.

Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) — every pair, head-to-head

--- Ranked Robin (RCV-RR / Copeland) Method (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 9 ballots (score ballots).

Ballots:
   the ranking Ranked Robin reads ("=" = tied); source scores follow in () per column: Alma, Bruno, Celia
     4 × Alma=Bruno > Celia      (5, 5, 0)
     1 × Alma > Bruno > Celia      (4, 2, 1)
     3 × Bruno > Celia > Alma      (1, 5, 3)
     1 × Celia > Bruno > Alma      (0, 2, 5)

Round-Robin — every pair, head-to-head (For – Against):
   Bruno  beats Alma    4 – 1
   Alma   beats Celia   5 – 4
   Bruno  beats Celia   8 – 1

--- Pairwise (Round-Robin) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison — the Ranked Robin tally
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against   (row vs column)
          |   Alma    |  Bruno   |  Celia   |
---------------------------------------------
   Alma > |    ---    |1 - 4 - 4 |5 - 0 - 4 |
  Bruno > | 4 - 4 - 1 |   ---    |8 - 0 - 1 |
  Celia > | 4 - 0 - 5 |1 - 0 - 8 |   ---    |

Win–loss record — Copeland score = wins + ½·ties (highest score wins; ties broken by total margin, then lot order):
    #  Candidate  W–L–T  Copeland  Margin  Beats
    1  Bruno      2–0–0         2     +10  Alma, Celia
    2  Alma       1–1–0         1      -2  Celia
    3  Celia      0–2–0         0      -8  —

Winner — Ranked Robin (RCV-RR): Bruno
   beats every opponent head-to-head — the Condorcet winner.

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (1 of 3): Bruno
   Outside (2):        Alma, Celia
   One member ⇒ Bruno is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
   Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) winner Bruno is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
      Guaranteed: Ranked Robin (Copeland) is Smith-efficient — every member of
      the set outscores every outsider, so the top of the win–loss table is
      always inside the set, however the tie among them is then broken.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md