FairVote white paper — French 2017 (BURIAL): coordinated strategy squeezes Macron out¶
▶ Live on BetterVoting: vote · results ↗ (election 2hqmrd · test BV2230) — an independent tabulator to check the winners below against.
Bucket — IRV_DIFFERS_ARTIFACT: RCV-IRV differs — tie-break artifact
Generated by STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_divergence_index.py — rebuilt from the election file; do not hand-edit.
What happens¶
On these ballots RCV-IRV reports LePen rather than STAR's Melenchon, but this is an artifact of score→rank conversion, not a robust method difference: 100 of 100 ballots have tied non-zero scores, so their ranks are set by an arbitrary candidate-priority order; the RCV-IRV winner flips when that priority order is reversed. Ranked Robin and the Condorcet (pairwise) winner both agree with STAR (Melenchon). Do not use this case to criticize RCV-IRV — the disagreement is a coin-flip created by equal scores and would vanish under a different (equally arbitrary) tie-break.
Winners by method¶
| Method | Winner |
|---|---|
| STAR | Melenchon |
| RCV-IRV | LePen |
| Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) | Melenchon |
| Approval | Fillon |
| Range / Score | Melenchon |
| Condorcet | Melenchon |
Flags: 100 tied-score ballot(s); IRV winner flips under reversed priority (fragile tie); RR conversion-sensitive (weak=Melenchon, strict=Fillon)
Source election: method_comparisons/fairvote_star_whitepaper/cases/bv2230_2hqmrd_french_2017_burial.yaml · STAR tabulated mirror: bv2230_2hqmrd_french_2017_burial_tabulated.txt
4 candidates, 100 ballots.
The ballots¶
Each row is a group of identical score ballots (0 = no support, 5 = max).
| Count | Macron | LePen | Fillon | Melenchon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 25 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 24 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 25 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
STAR result (official)¶
Scoring round (sum of scores): Melenchon 399, Fillon 398, LePen 321, Macron 130
Finalists (top two): Melenchon and Fillon
Automatic runoff: Melenchon 25 vs Fillon 24 (51 equal/no-preference)
STAR winner: Melenchon
Full LH STAR engine report:
--- Runoff (Preference) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against
* indicates Top 2 Finalist
| * Fillon | * Melenchon |
--------------------------------------------------
* Fillon > | --- |24 - 51 - 25 |
* Melenchon > | 25 - 51 - 24 | --- |
[Divergence from STAR]
STAR = Melenchon
Choose-One (Plurality) = Macron (differs from STAR)
RCV-IRV = LePen (differs from STAR)
Approval = Fillon (differs from STAR)
Note: 100 of 100 ballots (100%) had equal non-zero scores, so their ranks
were decided by candidate priority order. The RCV-IRV result may be
an artifact of score-to-rank tie-breaking rather than a deep
difference.
Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone
outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature.
--- STAR Voting Method (single winner) ---
Tabulating 100 ballots.
Count × Macron,LePen,Fillon,Melenchon
26 × 5, 0, 3, 3
25 × 0, 4, 4, 5
25 × 0, 5, 4, 4
24 × 0, 4, 5, 4
[Score Distribution] (how many ballots gave each star rating)
Score
Candidate 5 4 3 2 1 0 | Total Avg
Macron 26 0 0 0 0 74 | 130 1.3
LePen 25 49 0 0 0 26 | 321 3.2
Fillon 24 50 26 0 0 0 | 398 4.0
Melenchon 25 49 26 0 0 0 | 399 4.0
Scoring Round
The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round.
Melenchon -- 399 -- First place
Fillon -- 398 -- Second place
LePen -- 321
Macron -- 130
Melenchon and Fillon advance.
Automatic Runoff Round
The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins.
Melenchon -- 25 -- First place
Fillon -- 24
Equal Support -- 51
Melenchon wins.
Voters with a preference: 49 of 100 (51 Equal Support).
Melenchon 25 (51%) vs Fillon 24 (49%); majority = 25.
Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)
Melenchon
RCV-IRV — round by round¶
⚠️ This election has a fragile IRV tie (equal scores force an arbitrary tie-break). The round table below is only one realization; a different tie-break can change the winner. See the flag above.
--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
Tabulating 100 ballots (converted from score ballots; 0 = unranked, equal scores broken by candidate priority).
Ballots:
the ranking RCV-IRV reads (0 = unranked, equal scores broken by priority);
the source score ballot follows in () per column: Macron, LePen, Fillon, Melenchon
26 × Macron > Fillon > Melenchon (5, 0, 3, 3)
25 × Melenchon > LePen > Fillon (0, 4, 4, 5)
24 × Fillon > LePen > Melenchon (0, 4, 5, 4)
25 × LePen > Fillon > Melenchon (0, 5, 4, 4)
ROUND 1
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
Macron 26 Hopeful
LePen 25 Hopeful
Melenchon 25 Hopeful
Fillon 24 Rejected
ROUND 2
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
LePen 49 Hopeful
Macron 26 Hopeful
Melenchon 25 Rejected
Fillon 0 Rejected
FINAL RESULT
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
LePen 74 Elected
Macron 26 Rejected
Melenchon 0 Rejected
Fillon 0 Rejected
Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
LePen
--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
Smith set (1 of 4): Melenchon
Outside (3): Macron, LePen, Fillon
One member ⇒ Melenchon is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
RCV-IRV winner LePen is OUTSIDE the Smith set. ✗
Every member of the set (Melenchon) beats LePen head-to-head, yet
RCV-IRV elected LePen anyway. RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient (nor
Condorcet-efficient) — this is the shape a center squeeze leaves behind.
More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md
NOTE: a generated cross-method view of the STAR ballots, for comparison only — not the official STAR result.
Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) — every pair, head-to-head¶
--- Ranked Robin (RCV-RR / Copeland) Method (single winner) ---
Tabulating 100 ballots (score ballots).
Ballots:
the ranking Ranked Robin reads ("=" = tied); source scores follow in () per column: Macron, LePen, Fillon, Melenchon
26 × Macron > Fillon=Melenchon > LePen (5, 0, 3, 3)
25 × Melenchon > LePen=Fillon > Macron (0, 4, 4, 5)
24 × Fillon > LePen=Melenchon > Macron (0, 4, 5, 4)
25 × LePen > Fillon=Melenchon > Macron (0, 5, 4, 4)
Round-Robin — every pair, head-to-head (For – Against):
LePen beats Macron 74 – 26
Fillon beats Macron 74 – 26
Melenchon beats Macron 74 – 26
Fillon beats LePen 50 – 25
Melenchon beats LePen 51 – 25
Melenchon beats Fillon 25 – 24
--- Pairwise (Round-Robin) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison — the Ranked Robin tally
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against (row vs column)
| Macron | LePen | Fillon | Melenchon |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Macron > | --- |26 - 0 - 74 |26 - 0 - 74 |26 - 0 - 74 |
LePen > | 74 - 0 - 26 | --- |25 - 25 - 50 |25 - 24 - 51 |
Fillon > | 74 - 0 - 26 |50 - 25 - 25 | --- |24 - 51 - 25 |
Melenchon > | 74 - 0 - 26 |51 - 24 - 25 |25 - 51 - 24 | --- |
Win–loss record — Copeland score = wins + ½·ties (highest score wins; ties broken by total margin, then lot order):
# Candidate W–L–T Copeland Margin Beats
1 Melenchon 3–0–0 3 +75 Fillon, LePen, Macron
2 Fillon 2–1–0 2 +72 LePen, Macron
3 LePen 1–2–0 1 -3 Macron
4 Macron 0–3–0 0 -144 —
Winner — Ranked Robin (RCV-RR): Melenchon
beats every opponent head-to-head — the Condorcet winner.
--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
Smith set (1 of 4): Melenchon
Outside (3): Macron, LePen, Fillon
One member ⇒ Melenchon is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) winner Melenchon is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
Guaranteed: Ranked Robin (Copeland) is Smith-efficient — every member of
the set outscores every outsider, so the top of the win–loss table is
always inside the set, however the tie among them is then broken.
More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md