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STAR's runoff is spoiler-sensitive under a Condorcet cycle — a losing candidate (Ben) flips Alice vs Carla (BV2212, g3f7r2)

▶ Live on BetterVoting: vote · results ↗ (election g3f7r2 · test BV2212) — an independent tabulator to check the winners below against.

Bucket — CYCLE_OR_THREE_WAY: Cycle / three-way split

Generated by STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_divergence_index.py — rebuilt from the election file; do not hand-edit.

What happens

There is no Condorcet winner — the head-to-head results form a cycle (X beats Y beats Z beats X). With no pairwise anchor the methods split: STAR=Alice, RCV-IRV=Carla, Ranked Robin=Alice (RR breaks the cycle by total margin). No rule is clearly 'right'; a genuinely hard election, not an indictment of any one method.

Winners by method

Method Winner
STAR Alice
RCV-IRV Carla
Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) Alice
Approval Alice
Range / Score Alice
Condorcet none (cycle)

Flags: none

Source election: 01_STAR/03_Criteria/iia_cycle_spoiler/cases/bv2212_g3f7r2_cycle_spoiler.yaml · STAR tabulated mirror: bv2212_g3f7r2_cycle_spoiler_tabulated.txt

3 candidates, 23 ballots.

The ballots

Each row is a group of identical score ballots (0 = no support, 5 = max).

Count Alice Ben Carla
7 3 0 5
10 5 3 0
6 0 5 3

STAR result (official)

Scoring round (sum of scores): Alice 71, Ben 60, Carla 53

Finalists (top two): Alice and Ben

Automatic runoff: Alice 17 vs Ben 6

STAR winner: Alice

Full LH STAR engine report:

--- Runoff (Preference) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against
        * indicates Top 2 Finalist
                 |   * Alice    |   * Ben     |
-----------------------------------------------
       * Alice > |     ---      |17 -  0 -  6 |
         * Ben > |  6 -  0 - 17 |    ---      |

[Divergence from STAR]
  STAR    = Alice
  RCV-IRV = Carla   (differs from STAR)
  Note: no ballots had tied scores, so RCV-IRV vs STAR here is a genuine
        method difference, not a tie-breaking artifact.
  Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone
        outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature.

--- STAR Voting Method (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 23 ballots.
Count × Alice,Ben,Carla
   10 ×     5,  3,    0
    7 ×     3,  0,    5
    6 ×     0,  5,    3

[Score Distribution] (how many ballots gave each star rating)
                   Score
Candidate   5   4   3   2   1   0  | Total   Avg
Alice      10   0   7   0   0   6  |    71   3.1
Ben         6   0  10   0   0   7  |    60   2.6
Carla       7   0   6   0   0  10  |    53   2.3

Scoring Round
 The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round.
   Alice         -- 71 -- First place
   Ben           -- 60 -- Second place
   Carla         -- 53
 Alice and Ben advance.

Automatic Runoff Round
 The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins.
   Alice         -- 17 -- First place
   Ben           --  6
   Equal Support --  0
 Alice wins.
   Voters with a preference: 23 of 23 (no Equal Support).
   Alice 17 (74%) vs Ben 6 (26%); majority = 12.

Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)
 Alice

RCV-IRV — round by round

--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 23 ballots (converted from score ballots; 0 = unranked, equal scores broken by candidate priority).

Ballots:
   the ranking RCV-IRV reads (0 = unranked, equal scores broken by priority);
   the source score ballot follows in () per column: Alice, Ben, Carla
     7 ×   Carla > Alice      (3, 0, 5)
    10 ×   Alice > Ben      (5, 3, 0)
     6 ×   Ben > Carla      (0, 5, 3)

ROUND 1
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Alice             10  Hopeful
Carla              7  Hopeful
Ben                6  Rejected

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Carla             13  Elected
Alice             10  Rejected
Ben                0  Rejected


Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
  Carla

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (3 of 3): Alice, Ben, Carla
   Outside (0):        —
   More than one member ⇒ NO Condorcet winner: the top of the tournament is a
   cycle, so the strongest "candidate" is a set, not a person. Which member of
   the set should win is exactly what Minimax / Ranked Pairs / Schulze disagree
   about — see 05_Ranked_Robin/01_Learn/cycle_resolution.md.
   RCV-IRV winner Carla is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
      Not guaranteed — RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient — but it holds here.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md

NOTE: a generated cross-method view of the STAR ballots, for comparison only — not the official STAR result.

Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) — every pair, head-to-head

--- Ranked Robin (RCV-RR / Copeland) Method (single winner) ---
 Tabulating 23 ballots (score ballots).

Ballots:
   the ranking Ranked Robin reads ("=" = tied); source scores follow in () per column: Alice, Ben, Carla
     7 × Carla > Alice > Ben      (3, 0, 5)
    10 × Alice > Ben > Carla      (5, 3, 0)
     6 × Ben > Carla > Alice      (0, 5, 3)

Round-Robin — every pair, head-to-head (For – Against):
   Alice  beats Ben     17 –  6
   Carla  beats Alice   13 – 10
   Ben    beats Carla   16 –  7

--- Pairwise (Round-Robin) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison — the Ranked Robin tally
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against   (row vs column)
          |    Alice     |    Ben      |   Carla     |
------------------------------------------------------
  Alice > |     ---      |17 -  0 -  6 |10 -  0 - 13 |
    Ben > |  6 -  0 - 17 |    ---      |16 -  0 -  7 |
  Carla > | 13 -  0 - 10 | 7 -  0 - 16 |    ---      |

Win–loss record — Copeland score = wins + ½·ties (highest score wins; ties broken by total margin, then lot order):
    #  Candidate  W–L–T  Copeland  Margin  Beats
    1  Alice      1–1–0         1      +8  Ben
    2  Ben        1–1–0         1      -2  Carla
    3  Carla      1–1–0         1      -6  Alice

Winner — Ranked Robin (RCV-RR): Alice
   *** 3 candidates tie for the most wins (Alice, Ben, Carla) — a Condorcet cycle (no candidate beats all others). Resolved by total margin, then lot order. (This is where Minimax / Ranked Pairs / Schulze differ — see 05_Ranked_Robin/01_Learn/cycle_resolution.md.)

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (3 of 3): Alice, Ben, Carla
   Outside (0):        —
   More than one member ⇒ NO Condorcet winner: the top of the tournament is a
   cycle, so the strongest "candidate" is a set, not a person. Which member of
   the set should win is exactly what Minimax / Ranked Pairs / Schulze disagree
   about — see 05_Ranked_Robin/01_Learn/cycle_resolution.md.
   Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) winner Alice is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
      Guaranteed: Ranked Robin (Copeland) is Smith-efficient — every member of
      the set outscores every outsider, so the top of the win–loss table is
      always inside the set, however the tie among them is then broken.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md