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BV2149 — Felsenthal Example 3 (III of III): Bruno won both districts; Alma wins the whole

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Bruno wins District I (BV2147). Bruno wins District II (BV2148) — outright, with a first-round majority. Put the two electorates together, change nothing else, and plurality-with-runoff elects Alma. That is the Reinforcement paradox (multiple-districts / inconsistency paradox): the procedure disagrees with itself when electorates that agree are combined.

Source

Dan S. Felsenthal, "Review of Paradoxes Afflicting Various Voting Procedures Where One Out of m Candidates (m ≥ 2) Must Be Elected", University of Haifa / LSE, revised 26 May 2010 (Leverhulme Trust Voting Power in Practice workshop, Château du Baffy, Normandy). Appendix §A2, Example 3.

The three electorates

Felsenthal's a, b, c → cast as Alma, Bruno, Cora (same cast across the trio — it's one story):

District I (17)                District II (15)               Combined (32)
 4  Alma  > Bruno > Cora        6  Alma  > Cora  > Bruno       4  Alma  > Bruno > Cora
 1  Bruno > Alma  > Cora        8  Bruno > Cora  > Alma        6  Alma  > Cora  > Bruno
 5  Bruno > Cora  > Alma        1  Cora  > Alma  > Bruno       1  Bruno > Alma  > Cora
 6  Cora  > Alma  > Bruno                                     13  Bruno > Cora  > Alma
 1  Cora  > Bruno > Alma                                       7  Cora  > Alma  > Bruno
                                                               1  Cora  > Bruno > Alma

Under plurality-with-runoff (= IRV for three candidates): District I has no first-round majority (4/6/7) → Alma deleted → Bruno beats Cora 10–7. District II: Bruno wins round one (8 of 15, an absolute majority). Combined: no majority (Alma 10, Bruno 14, Cora 8) → Cora deleted → Alma beats Bruno 17–15.

Why this is the Reinforcement paradox

The Reinforcement postulate says: if two disjoint electorates each elect X, their union must elect X. Both districts elected Bruno; the union elects Alma. Nothing subjective is needed to call this wrong — the procedure contradicts its own two verdicts. The mechanism is the elimination step again: amalgamation flips who gets deleted (Alma in District I, Cora in the combined count), and the deletion decides the final pair. Teaching page: multiple_districts.md.

A subtlety the case pages flag: District I and the Combined electorate are Condorcet cycles (combined: Alma>Bruno 17–15, Bruno>Cora 18–14, Cora>Alma 21–11), so there's no "true winner" to appeal to — which is exactly why the paradox is stated as self-inconsistency, not as missing a Condorcet winner. (District II does have a Condorcet winner: Bruno. No Ranked Robin races in this trio — BV would resolve the cyclic ties at random, which can't be frozen; see the BV2142 caveat.)

STAR on the same ballots

Ranks mapped 5/3/1. Combined: Alma 88, Bruno 98, Cora 102 — Cora and Bruno advance, Bruno wins the runoff 18–14. With Districts I and II also electing Bruno (BV2147: 47/51/55, runoff 10–7; BV2148: 41/47/47, runoff 8–7), STAR is consistent across all three counts in this election — though runoff-bearing methods are not reinforcement-proof in general.

View 1 — BetterVoting

Live results: bettervoting.com/byk9v2/results ↗. BV elects Alma (IRV) and Bruno (STAR) — matching LH, no tiebreaks.

View 2 — LH engine

Runoff/IRV race (bv2149_byk9v2_irv.yaml):

 Tabulating 32 ballots (ranked ballots).

ROUND 1
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Bruno             14  Hopeful
Alma              10  Hopeful
Cora               8  Rejected

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Alma              17  Elected
Bruno             15  Rejected
Cora               0  Rejected

Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
  Alma

STAR race (bv2149_byk9v2_star.yaml) → Bruno (102/98/88; runoff 18–14). Full detail: IRV mirror · STAR mirror.

Agreement

Election Race BetterVoting LH engine Agree?
BV2147 District I Runoff (IRV) Bruno Bruno
BV2147 District I STAR Bruno Bruno
BV2148 District II Runoff (IRV) Bruno Bruno
BV2148 District II STAR Bruno Bruno
BV2149 Combined Runoff (IRV) Alma Alma
BV2149 Combined STAR Bruno Bruno

Frozen export: bv2149_byk9v2_bv_export.json · The districts: BV2147 · BV2148.