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The Post-it RCV example (20 voters) — the runoff RCV-IRV never held

▶ Live on BetterVoting: vote · results ↗ (election p8dp28, Test ID BV2176).

The 20-voter election from Equal Vote's video "Updated: How does RCV work? — With Post-its!" — the whiteboard demo that walks through an RCV-IRV count sticky note by sticky note, then asks the question the count itself never asks: was the eliminated candidate actually stronger head-to-head? Four candidates (Purple, Green, Blue, Pink), one electorate, three tabulations live on BetterVoting: RCV-IRV elects Purple, STAR (on the video's own 0–5 scores) elects Blue, and Ranked Robin exposes a Condorcet cycle whose 2–1 tie the two engines break differently — Green on BetterVoting, Blue in the LH engine. Same ballots, three defensible winners: the tabulation decides.

The ballots

The same 20 voters, ranked (the video's Post-its) and scored 0–5 (the video's STAR comparison):

# voters ranked ballot scores (Purple, Green, Blue, Pink)
7 Purple 5, 0, 0, 0
6 Green > Blue > Pink 0, 5, 4, 3
2 Blue > Pink 0, 0, 5, 4
1 Blue > Green > Pink 0, 4, 5, 3
1 Blue > Purple 4, 0, 5, 0
1 Pink > Green > Purple 3, 4, 0, 5
1 Pink > Purple 4, 0, 0, 5
1 Pink 0, 0, 0, 5

First choices: Purple 7, Green 6, Blue 4, Pink 3. Score totals: Purple 46, Blue 44, Pink 44, Green 38.

The video's count — and the video's question

RCV-IRV (the whiteboard walk-through): round 1 eliminates Pink (3 first choices; 1 ballot transfers to Green, 1 to Purple, 1 bullet-vote exhausts). Round 2 stands at Purple 8, Green 7, Blue 4 — Blue is eliminated (1 to Green, 1 to Purple, and both Blue>Pink ballots exhaust, Pink being already gone). Final: Purple 9, Green 8, with 3 of the 20 ballots exhausted — Purple wins with 9 of the 17 still-active ballots.

The video then flips the round-2 elimination: what if Green (7 votes) had gone out instead of Blue (4)? All six Green>Blue>Pink ballots land on Blue, and Blue wins 10–9. That hypothetical is not a fluke of transfer order — it is the actual head-to-head: on these 20 ballots Blue beats Purple 10–9. RCV-IRV eliminated Blue without ever holding that matchup.

STAR holds it automatically. Scoring round: Purple 46 advances; the 44–44 tie between Blue and Pink for the second finalist slot breaks by the official protocol's next rung — head-to-head, where Blue is preferred over Pink 10–3. The automatic runoff is then exactly the matchup the video asked about: Blue 10, Purple 9 (1 Equal Support) — Blue wins. It is also a Runoff Reversal: the score leader (Purple, 46) loses the majority check, STAR working as designed. BetterVoting concurs on every rung (tieBreakType: head_to_head on the scoring tie).

One electorate, three counts

Race (BV) Method BV winner LH winner How
Post-its 20 voters — STAR STAR Blue Blue 46/38/44/44; second-finalist tie → head-to-head Blue 10–3 Pink; runoff Blue 10–9 (Runoff Reversal)
Post-its 20 voters — RCV-IRV IRV Purple Purple 7/6/4/3 → 8/7/4 → 9–8; 3 exhausted
Post-its 20 voters — Ranked Robin RankedRobin (Copeland) Green Blue 2-way Copeland tie at 2–1 — the two ladders part ways (below)

The Ranked Robin race — one tie, two ladders, both deterministic

There is no Condorcet winner here: the pairwise picture is a genuine cycle (Purple beats Green 9–8, Green beats Blue 7–4, Blue beats Purple 10–9 — and Pink beats Purple 12–8). Green and Blue each go 2–1 (Copeland 2), and that tie is exactly where the two engines' tiebreak ladders diverge:

  • BetterVoting (RankedRobin.ts): exactly 2 tied → their own head-to-head. Green beats Blue 7–4Green, deterministically (BV-confirmed live).
  • LH (run_ranked_robin): total margin. Blue +5 vs Green +4 → Blue, deterministically.

Both ladders are deterministic on this profile, so the race is freezable — making BV2176 the first live BetterVoting election to exhibit the documented ladder divergence (the previous worked example, the dead-heat case, is LH-only because BV's ladder falls through to random there). The independent pref_voting Copeland check reports the leader set {Blue, Green}: both engines tie-broke inside it, consistently with their published rules.


LH engine reports (View 2)

STAR — Blue (the runoff the video asked for)

[Divergence from STAR]
  STAR                   = Blue
  Choose-One (Plurality) = Purple   (differs from STAR)
  RCV-IRV                = Purple   (differs from STAR)
  Approval               = Pink   (differs from STAR)
  Note: no ballots had tied scores, so RCV-IRV vs STAR here is a genuine
        method difference, not a tie-breaking artifact.
  Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone
        outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature.
  Full round-by-round reports (generated for review):
  RCV-IRV rounds: cases_tabulated/bv2176_p8dp28_star_RCV-IRV_tabulated.txt

[Runoff Reversal]
 - Score Round Winner(s) = (Purple)
 - Runoff Round Winner   = (Blue)
  Candidate Purple earned the highest total score, but
  Candidate Blue won the automatic runoff — not a malfunction,
  STAR working as designed: the runoff elects the finalist preferred
  by the majority (of voters with a preference).

--- STAR Voting Method (single winner) ---

[STAR Voting]
 Tabulating 20 ballots.
Count × Purple,Green,Blue,Pink
    7 ×      5,    0,   0,   0
    6 ×      0,    5,   4,   3
    2 ×      0,    0,   5,   4
    1 ×      0,    4,   5,   3
    1 ×      4,    0,   5,   0
    1 ×      3,    4,   0,   5
    1 ×      4,    0,   0,   5
    1 ×      0,    0,   0,   5

[STAR Voting: Scoring Round]
 The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round.
   Purple        -- 46 -- First place
   Blue          -- 44 -- Tied for second place
   Pink          -- 44 -- Tied for second place
   Green         -- 38
 Purple advances, but there's a two-way tie for second.

[STAR Voting: Scoring Round: First tiebreaker]
 The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups advances.
   Blue          -- 10 -- Second place
   Pink          --  3
   Equal Support --  7
 Purple and Blue advance.

[STAR Voting: Automatic Runoff Round]
 The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins.
   Blue          -- 10 -- First place
   Purple        --  9
   Equal Support --  1
 Blue wins.
   Runoff math:
     20  ballots cast
   −  1  Equal Support (no preference between the two finalists)
     ──
     19  voters with a preference  (majority = 10)
           Blue 10 (53%)  ·  Purple 9 (47%)

[STAR Voting: Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)]
 Blue

RCV-IRV — Purple (the video's whiteboard rounds)

ROUND 1
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Purple             7  Hopeful
Green              6  Hopeful
Blue               4  Hopeful
Pink               3  Rejected

ROUND 2
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Purple             8  Hopeful
Green              7  Hopeful
Blue               4  Rejected
Pink               0  Rejected
Blank Votes        1  Rejected

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Purple             9  Elected
Green              8  Rejected
Blue               0  Rejected
Pink               0  Rejected
Blank Votes        3  Rejected

Ranked Robin — the cycle, the 2–1 tie, and LH's margin rung

Round-Robin — every pair, head-to-head (For – Against):
   Purple  beats Green     9 –  8
   Blue    beats Purple   10 –  9
   Pink    beats Purple   12 –  8
   Green   beats Blue      7 –  4
   Green   beats Pink      7 –  5
   Blue    beats Pink     10 –  3

Win–loss record — Copeland score = wins + ½·ties (highest score wins; ties broken by total margin, then lot order):
    #  Candidate  W–L–T  Copeland  Margin  Beats
    1  Blue       2–1–0         2      +5  Purple, Pink
    2  Green      2–1–0         2      +4  Blue, Pink
    3  Purple     1–2–0         1      -4  Green
    4  Pink       1–2–0         1      -5  Purple

Winner — Ranked Robin (RCV-RR): Blue
   *** 2 candidates tie for the most wins (Green, Blue) — tied on the tally, not a
   cycle (some of them beat others head-to-head, but no loop closes). Resolved by
   total margin, then lot order.

BetterVoting's live result for the same race: Green (Copeland 2, elected via the head-to-head rung of its ladder).


Files

Race YAML _tabulated mirror
STAR (lead) page · bv2176_p8dp28_star.yaml txt
RCV-IRV page · bv2176_p8dp28_irv.yaml txt
Ranked Robin page · bv2176_p8dp28_ranked_robin.yaml txt

Frozen BetterVoting export (Election + Ballots + Results): bv2176_p8dp28_bv_export.json — BV's stored winners match every LH prediction (STAR Blue, RCV-IRV Purple, Ranked Robin Green — the ladder divergence, on the record).

Related: the video · LH vs BV on Ranked Robin ties · cycle resolution · up: method_comparisons

BetterVoting result screenshots (View 1) can be dropped into img/ as img/p8dp28_<what>.png and linked here.

file: bv2176_p8dp28_postit_rcv_example.md