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Topic: Center Squeeze (the eliminated moderate)

Topic hub — a cross-method view. Center squeeze is when a broadly-liked moderate — who would beat every rival head-to-head — is eliminated early for having too few first choices, handing the win to a more polarizing candidate the majority actually opposed.

The one idea to take away: center squeeze is specific to the Hare elimination rule (drop the fewest-first-choices candidate), not to ranked ballots, and not even to every instant-runoff variant. Read the whole ballot and the squeeze disappears.

Which methods suffer it — and where each is treated

Method Squeezes the center? Why Full page
RCV-IRV (Hare) ❌ yes eliminates on first choices, so the moderate is cut before their breadth counts Center squeeze
Contingent / Supplementary ❌ yes one-shot top-two — same first-choice cut Contingent & SV
BTR / Baldwin / Nanson ✅ no Condorcet-safe IRV variants — read the whole ballot Which RCV-IRV?
Coombs ✅ no eliminates on last choices, so the moderate survives Coombs
Ranked Robin / Condorcet ✅ no elects the head-to-head winner directly — never eliminates them Ranked Robin
STAR ✅ no the scoring round advances a candidate on strength of support, not first-place counts Center squeeze § how STAR avoids it

The same 27-voter election runs through every method on the RCV-IRV-Hare page: Hare elects Left, everyone who reads the whole ballot elects the Condorcet winner, Center.

And it happened for real: Burlington 2009 — the actual 8,980 ballots, runnable in this repo. Montroll beats everyone head-to-head (5–0), IRV eliminates him in the semifinal, and a 750-voter raise built from the same profile makes the winner lose (non-monotonicity on certified ballots).

And the critique is ~240 years old. When the Marquis de Condorcet — the man the Condorcet criterion is named for — considered the eliminate-the-fewest-first-choices idea in the 1780s, he rejected it for exactly this flaw: that "the real wish of the plurality may be for a candidate who had none of the votes in the first ballot." Center squeeze, diagnosed two centuries before Burlington and Alaska made it concrete. (Via Wikipedia's IRV history; surfaced in Frohnmayer's Demystifying STAR Voting.)

Closely related: monotonicity and Condorcet efficiency. Glossary: center squeeze.


This is a topic hub (cross-method index). The authoritative write-ups live in the per-method folders linked above. See the topics index for the other topic hubs.