Burlington 2009 mayor, Wright deleted from every ballot — RCV-IRV now elects Montroll¶
Generated from burlington_2009_irv_without_wright.yaml — do not edit by hand. Regenerate: python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_yaml_pages.py.
Method: RCV-IRV (Instant Runoff) · 1 seat · Expected winner: Montroll
Scenario¶
The spoiler counterfactual, on the real ballots. Take burlington_2009_irv.yaml — the certified 2009 Burlington profile, PrefLib dataset 00005 — and strike KURT WRIGHT, who did not win, out of every ballot. Nothing else changes: no voter is given a preference they did not express and no ballot is reordered. The 840 Wright-only bullet ballots have nothing left to say and exhaust, leaving 8,134 tabulated. RCV-IRV now elects ANDY MONTROLL, 4063-3476 over Kiss — the same two numbers the full election's own pairwise matrix already reported for Montroll-vs-Kiss, because with Wright gone the instant runoff IS that head-to-head. In the real election IRV elected Kiss. So a losing candidate decided the outcome: an Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives failure on a certified municipal result. Note what this case is NOT. Wright (R) is not "similar" to Montroll (D), so this is not vote-splitting between allies — it is the plain IIA test, and it is the direct check on the claim that RCV "satisfies ... the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives ... criteria". For the version that is ALSO a same-side spoiler, see the Alaska 2022 pair in ../../alaska_2022/cases/. Reading it fairly: a real Wright withdrawal would have changed the campaign and who turned out. This is the STRICT criterion test — hold the ballots fixed, remove one candidate — which is what IIA asks and all a certified ballot record can honestly support. Lesson: ../README.md · claim check: ../../fairvote_comparison_table/README.md
Ballots¶
Each row is one voter's ranking, most-preferred first (N: prefix = N identical ballots).
458:Kiss>Montroll
472:Kiss
488:Smith
528:Montroll
345:Kiss>Montroll>Smith
326:Montroll>Kiss
405:Montroll>Smith
242:Montroll>Kiss>Smith
171:Kiss>Smith
445:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
299:Smith>Montroll
185:Kiss>Smith>Montroll
206:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
204:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith
349:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
273:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
257:Montroll>Smith>Kiss
166:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
154:Smith>Kiss>Montroll
198:Smith>Montroll>Kiss
248:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
101:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
330:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
198:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
57:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
108:Smith>Kiss
65:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith
31:Simpson
48:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith
61:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
50:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
23:Kiss>Simpson
51:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
28:Smith>Simpson
18:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
29:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
20:Kiss>Smith>Simpson
30:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Montroll
18:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
13:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>Kiss
24:WriteIn
14:Simpson>Smith>Kiss>Montroll
19:Smith>Montroll>Simpson
9:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
21:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Smith
9:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
12:Montroll>Simpson>Smith
9:Simpson>Smith
10:Kiss>Simpson>Smith
25:Montroll>Smith>Simpson
12:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
9:Smith>Kiss>Simpson
6:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
6:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
7:Simpson>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
14:Smith>Simpson>Montroll
10:Montroll>WriteIn
4:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
4:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>Smith
4:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
4:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
5:Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
7:Smith>WriteIn
5:Kiss>WriteIn
12:Montroll>Simpson
3:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
5:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn
3:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
3:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
3:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson
4:Simpson>WriteIn
4:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
3:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
4:Simpson>Kiss
4:WriteIn>Montroll
4:WriteIn>Kiss
7:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Smith
5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
2:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Smith
2:Montroll>Smith>WriteIn>Kiss
2:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
4:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
3:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
2:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Simpson
2:Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
2:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
2:Smith>Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
4:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
3:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss
2:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn
3:Smith>Simpson>Kiss
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith
2:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith
1:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Simpson>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
3:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss
1:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
1:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
1:Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
3:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll
1:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
2:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll
1:WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Montroll
1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Kiss
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Simpson
1:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll
1:WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith
1:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
2:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson
2:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss
1:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss
1:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
2:WriteIn>Kiss>Montroll
1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith
2:Simpson>Montroll>Smith
1:Smith>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Smith>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith
1:Simpson>Montroll
1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll
1:Simpson>Smith>Kiss
1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
1:WriteIn>Simpson
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll
1:WriteIn>Smith
What the engine says¶
The count, step by step — the rounds and how the winner is reached:
--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
Burlington 2009 mayor, Wright deleted from every ballot — RCV-IRV now elects Montroll
Tabulating 8134 ballots (ranked ballots).
ROUND 1
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
Montroll 2911 Hopeful
Kiss 2866 Hopeful
Smith 2188 Rejected
Simpson 113 Rejected
WriteIn 56 Rejected
FINAL RESULT
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
Montroll 4063 Elected
Kiss 3476 Rejected
Smith 0 Rejected
Simpson 0 Rejected
WriteIn 0 Rejected
Blank Votes 595 Rejected
Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
Montroll
--- Transfers and inactive ballots (what the round tables leave out) ---
The tables above give each candidate's round total but not where a
transferred vote came FROM, nor how many ballots stopped counting.
Both are recomputed from the ballots, using the eliminations the
count above actually made.
ROUND 1 — 8134 of 8134 ballots still active; majority = 4068
WriteIn eliminated with 56:
→ (no continuing ranking) 26 ← these ballots go inactive
→ Montroll 22
→ Kiss 8
Simpson eliminated with 113:
→ (no continuing ranking) 44 ← these ballots go inactive
→ Montroll 35
→ Kiss 34
Smith eliminated with 2188:
→ Montroll 1095
→ Kiss 568
→ (no continuing ranking) 525 ← these ballots go inactive
FINAL ROUND — 7539 of 8134 ballots still active (595 inactive); majority = 3770
Montroll 4063 (53.9% of the still-active) ← elected
Kiss 3476 (46.1% of the still-active)
Never exhausted, never transferred:
2884 ballots held by Kiss carried a lower ranking that was never read
(the count stopped here, so those preferences did nothing).
Inactive ballots at the final round: 595 of 8134 (7.3%).
Montroll's 4063 is a majority of the 7539 still active but only 50.0% of all 8134 cast —
the 'majority' here is of a shrunken denominator. See
06_Other/RCV_IRV/concepts/RCV_IRV_exhausted_ballots.md
Full audit — preference matrix, Condorcet, and score distribution¶
--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
Smith set (1 of 5): Montroll
Outside (4): Kiss, Smith, Simpson, WriteIn
One member ⇒ Montroll is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
RCV-IRV winner Montroll is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
Not guaranteed — RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient — but it holds here.
More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md
Everything in one file: the _tabulated mirror (regenerated on every run; every analysis forced on).
Run it yourself:
python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/starvote_larry_hastings.py method_comparisons/burlington_2009/cases/burlington_2009_irv_without_wright.yaml
See also¶
- Vote splitting (worked set)
- Runoff reversal (worked set)
- Exhausted ballots (untangled)
- Glossary · all cases by method
More cases in this set: burlington_2009_irv · burlington_2009_raise_kiss_nonmono · burlington_2009_ranked_robin