====================================================================== SOURCE FILE: burlington_2009_irv_without_wright.yaml TABULATED FILE: burlington_2009_irv_without_wright_tabulated.txt ====================================================================== election_title: "Burlington 2009 mayor, Wright deleted from every ballot — RCV-IRV now elects Montroll" paradoxes: [condorcet-winner] scenario_description: |- The spoiler counterfactual, on the real ballots. Take burlington_2009_irv.yaml — the certified 2009 Burlington profile, PrefLib dataset 00005 — and strike KURT WRIGHT, who did not win, out of every ballot. Nothing else changes: no voter is given a preference they did not express and no ballot is reordered. The 840 Wright-only bullet ballots have nothing left to say and exhaust, leaving 8,134 tabulated. RCV-IRV now elects ANDY MONTROLL, 4063-3476 over Kiss — the same two numbers the full election's own pairwise matrix already reported for Montroll-vs-Kiss, because with Wright gone the instant runoff IS that head-to-head. In the real election IRV elected Kiss. So a losing candidate decided the outcome: an Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives failure on a certified municipal result. Note what this case is NOT. Wright (R) is not "similar" to Montroll (D), so this is not vote-splitting between allies — it is the plain IIA test, and it is the direct check on the claim that RCV "satisfies ... the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives ... criteria". For the version that is ALSO a same-side spoiler, see the Alaska 2022 pair in ../../alaska_2022/cases/. Reading it fairly: a real Wright withdrawal would have changed the campaign and who turned out. This is the STRICT criterion test — hold the ballots fixed, remove one candidate — which is what IIA asks and all a certified ballot record can honestly support. Lesson: ../README.md · claim check: ../../fairvote_comparison_table/README.md voting_method: RCV_IRV num_winners: 1 lh_only_reason: "A counterfactual profile — 8,134 weighted ballots that were never cast in this form. Publishing it as a live BetterVoting election would present a hypothetical as a real contest." ballots: |- 458:Kiss>Montroll 472:Kiss 488:Smith 528:Montroll 345:Kiss>Montroll>Smith 326:Montroll>Kiss 405:Montroll>Smith 242:Montroll>Kiss>Smith 171:Kiss>Smith 445:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson 299:Smith>Montroll 185:Kiss>Smith>Montroll 206:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss 204:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith 349:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson 273:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson 257:Montroll>Smith>Kiss 166:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss 154:Smith>Kiss>Montroll 198:Smith>Montroll>Kiss 248:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson 101:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss 330:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson 198:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson 57:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson 108:Smith>Kiss 65:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith 31:Simpson 48:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith 61:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll 50:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss 23:Kiss>Simpson 51:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll 28:Smith>Simpson 18:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll 29:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll 20:Kiss>Smith>Simpson 30:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Montroll 18:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson 13:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>Kiss 24:WriteIn 14:Simpson>Smith>Kiss>Montroll 19:Smith>Montroll>Simpson 9:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn 21:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Smith 9:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn 12:Montroll>Simpson>Smith 9:Simpson>Smith 10:Kiss>Simpson>Smith 25:Montroll>Smith>Simpson 12:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss 9:Smith>Kiss>Simpson 6:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn 6:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn 5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson 7:Simpson>Montroll>Smith>Kiss 14:Smith>Simpson>Montroll 10:Montroll>WriteIn 4:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson 4:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>Smith 4:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson 4:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss 5:Montroll>Smith>WriteIn 7:Smith>WriteIn 5:Kiss>WriteIn 12:Montroll>Simpson 3:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn 5:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn 3:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson 3:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn 3:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson 4:Simpson>WriteIn 4:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn 3:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn 4:Simpson>Kiss 4:WriteIn>Montroll 4:WriteIn>Kiss 7:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Smith 5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn 2:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn 2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Smith 2:Montroll>Smith>WriteIn>Kiss 2:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn 2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss 2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss 2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson 4:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn 3:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn 2:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Simpson 2:Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson 2:WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss 2:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn 2:Smith>Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson 4:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn 3:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss 2:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn 3:Smith>Simpson>Kiss 2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith 2:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll 1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith 1:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson 1:Simpson>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll 1:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Simpson 1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn 1:WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll 3:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn 1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Kiss 1:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn 1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss 1:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn 1:WriteIn>Smith>Simpson>Montroll 1:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn 1:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn 1:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn 1:Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson 3:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll 1:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson 2:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson 1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll 1:WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Montroll 1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss 1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Kiss 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Simpson 1:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll 1:WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson 1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith 1:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn 2:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn 1:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson 2:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn 1:WriteIn>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss 2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn 1:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn 1:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson 1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss 1:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>WriteIn 1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss 1:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss 1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn 2:WriteIn>Kiss>Montroll 1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith 2:Simpson>Montroll>Smith 1:Smith>WriteIn>Montroll 1:Smith>WriteIn>Simpson 1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith 1:Simpson>Montroll 1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll 1:Simpson>Smith>Kiss 1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson 1:WriteIn>Simpson 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll 1:WriteIn>Smith expected_winners: - Montroll ====================================================================== TABULATION RESULTS ====================================================================== --- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) --- Burlington 2009 mayor, Wright deleted from every ballot — RCV-IRV now elects Montroll Tabulating 8134 ballots (ranked ballots). ROUND 1 Candidate Votes Status ----------- ------- -------- Montroll 2911 Hopeful Kiss 2866 Hopeful Smith 2188 Rejected Simpson 113 Rejected WriteIn 56 Rejected FINAL RESULT Candidate Votes Status ----------- ------- -------- Montroll 4063 Elected Kiss 3476 Rejected Smith 0 Rejected Simpson 0 Rejected WriteIn 0 Rejected Blank Votes 595 Rejected Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) Montroll --- Transfers and inactive ballots (what the round tables leave out) --- The tables above give each candidate's round total but not where a transferred vote came FROM, nor how many ballots stopped counting. Both are recomputed from the ballots, using the eliminations the count above actually made. ROUND 1 — 8134 of 8134 ballots still active; majority = 4068 WriteIn eliminated with 56: → (no continuing ranking) 26 ← these ballots go inactive → Montroll 22 → Kiss 8 Simpson eliminated with 113: → (no continuing ranking) 44 ← these ballots go inactive → Montroll 35 → Kiss 34 Smith eliminated with 2188: → Montroll 1095 → Kiss 568 → (no continuing ranking) 525 ← these ballots go inactive FINAL ROUND — 7539 of 8134 ballots still active (595 inactive); majority = 3770 Montroll 4063 (53.9% of the still-active) ← elected Kiss 3476 (46.1% of the still-active) Never exhausted, never transferred: 2884 ballots held by Kiss carried a lower ranking that was never read (the count stopped here, so those preferences did nothing). Inactive ballots at the final round: 595 of 8134 (7.3%). Montroll's 4063 is a majority of the 7539 still active but only 50.0% of all 8134 cast — the 'majority' here is of a shrunken denominator. See 06_Other/RCV_IRV/concepts/RCV_IRV_exhausted_ballots.md --- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) --- The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it — the honest answer to "who is even in contention?". Smith set (1 of 5): Montroll Outside (4): Kiss, Smith, Simpson, WriteIn One member ⇒ Montroll is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head. RCV-IRV winner Montroll is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓ Not guaranteed — RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient — but it holds here. More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md