Burlington 2009, the raise — 750 Wright voters rank Kiss first, and Kiss loses¶
Generated from burlington_2009_raise_kiss_nonmono.yaml — do not edit by hand. Regenerate: python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_yaml_pages.py.
Method: RCV-IRV (Instant Runoff) · 1 seat · Expected winner: Montroll
Scenario¶
Non-monotonicity on the real profile. Take the real ballots and let 750 Wright-first voters RAISE the actual winner Kiss to the top of their ballots (all 281 who already ranked Kiss second — their top two swap — plus 469 of the 840 Wright-only bullet voters, who become Kiss>Wright; chosen so the Montroll-vs-Kiss margin itself moves against Montroll by only 469, less than his 587-vote head-to-head cushion). Kiss gains 750 first-choice votes and LOSES: Wright now falls in the semifinal (2543 vs Montroll's 2553), Montroll survives to the final and wins it 4063-3945. Raising a candidate made him lose — the additional-support paradox, built from real ballots. The mirror no-show reading: roughly the same bloc staying home also elects Montroll. Lesson page: README.md in this folder. Real ballots: PrefLib dataset 00005 (00005-00000002.toi, 8,980 ballots, 384 unique orders; from Burlington's published election records). 6 ballots (0.07%) carrying equal-rank overvotes are not representable in this ranked syntax and are excluded — 8,974 tabulated; every official figure reproduces within +/-1 and every margin is hundreds of votes.
Ballots¶
Each row is one voter's ranking, most-preferred first (N: prefix = N identical ballots).
469:Kiss>Wright
371:Wright
355:Kiss>Montroll
326:Kiss
271:Wright>Smith
256:Wright>Montroll
234:Kiss>Montroll>Smith
200:Montroll>Kiss
178:Montroll
147:Wright>Montroll>Smith
145:Montroll>Kiss>Smith
139:Montroll>Smith
125:Kiss>Smith
124:Smith
123:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Wright>Simpson
122:Wright>Smith>Montroll
121:Kiss>Smith>Montroll
120:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Wright
104:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
103:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Wright
102:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
101:Wright>Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
94:Montroll>Wright
93:Montroll>Smith>Kiss
93:Smith>Wright
90:Wright>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
90:Smith>Montroll
88:Smith>Kiss>Montroll
83:Smith>Montroll>Kiss
80:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Wright
80:Kiss>Wright
76:Wright>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
72:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Wright>Simpson
71:Kiss>Montroll>Wright>Smith>Simpson
69:Wright>Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
69:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Wright>Simpson
66:Kiss>Wright
62:Montroll>Smith>Wright
61:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Wright
60:Montroll>Wright>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
60:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Wright
58:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Wright
57:Montroll>Wright>Smith
56:Montroll>Wright>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
55:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Wright>Simpson
54:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
53:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Wright
52:Smith>Wright>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
52:Wright>Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
52:Montroll>Smith>Wright>Kiss>Simpson
52:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
51:Smith>Kiss
50:Montroll>Kiss>Wright>Smith>Simpson
50:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
50:Smith>Wright>Montroll
48:Kiss>Montroll>Wright
46:Montroll>Kiss>Wright
46:Wright>Montroll>Kiss
45:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
45:Wright>Smith>Montroll>Kiss
43:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Wright>Simpson
42:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
41:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith
41:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Wright
39:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
39:Montroll>Wright>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
38:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Wright
38:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Wright
37:Montroll>Wright>Smith>Kiss
37:Smith>Montroll>Wright
34:Montroll>Wright>Kiss
32:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Wright>Simpson
32:Montroll>Smith>Wright>Kiss
31:Smith>Montroll>Wright>Kiss>Simpson
31:Kiss>Wright>Montroll
30:Wright>Smith>Kiss
29:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Wright
28:Smith>Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
27:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Wright
27:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Wright
27:Smith>Wright>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
27:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Wright
27:Smith>Montroll>Wright>Kiss
26:Kiss>Smith>Wright>Montroll>Simpson
26:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Wright
25:Wright>Simpson
24:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith>Wright
24:Montroll>Kiss>Wright>Smith
24:Kiss>Montroll>Wright>Smith
24:Kiss>Wright>Montroll
23:Montroll>Smith>Wright>Simpson>Kiss
23:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Wright
22:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
21:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
21:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Smith
21:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
21:Kiss>Wright>Smith
20:Montroll>Wright>Kiss>Smith
19:Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
19:Wright>Smith>Kiss>Montroll
19:Kiss>Simpson
18:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Wright
17:Wright>Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
17:Smith>Wright>Montroll>Kiss
16:Smith>Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Simpson
16:Wright>Smith>Simpson
16:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
16:Smith>Wright>Kiss
15:Wright>Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
15:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Wright>Kiss
15:Wright>Montroll>Kiss>Smith
15:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Montroll
15:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Smith
15:Kiss>Smith>Wright>Montroll
15:Kiss>Smith>Simpson
14:Kiss>Montroll>Wright>Simpson>Smith
14:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Wright
13:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Wright>Smith
13:Smith>Montroll>Wright>Simpson>Kiss
13:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
13:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
13:Kiss>Smith>Wright
12:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Smith
12:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Montroll>Wright
12:Montroll>Wright>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
12:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
12:Smith>Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
12:Smith>Wright>Kiss>Montroll
12:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Smith
12:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
12:Kiss>Wright>Smith
11:Wright>Simpson>Smith>Montroll>Kiss
11:Montroll>Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Smith
11:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Wright>Kiss
11:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith
11:Smith>Kiss>Wright
11:Wright>WriteIn
10:Wright>Simpson>Smith>Kiss>Montroll
10:Smith>Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Montroll
10:Wright>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
10:WriteIn
9:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
9:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Wright
9:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>Wright
9:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
9:Wright>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith
9:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
9:Montroll>Simpson>Smith
8:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss>Wright
8:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Wright>Kiss
8:Smith>Kiss>Wright>Montroll
8:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
8:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith
8:Wright>Simpson>Smith
8:Kiss>Simpson>Smith
8:Montroll>Smith>Simpson
7:Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Smith
7:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Wright>Smith
7:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
7:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
7:Smith>Kiss>Simpson
6:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Wright>Montroll
6:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
6:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
6:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
6:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Smith>Montroll
6:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Montroll
6:Smith>Simpson
5:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Wright
5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
5:Smith>Wright>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
5:Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
5:Kiss>Smith>Wright>Simpson>Montroll
5:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Smith
5:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
5:Wright>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
5:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Montroll
5:Montroll>Wright>Smith>Simpson
5:Smith>Simpson>Montroll
5:Smith>Montroll>Simpson
5:Montroll>WriteIn
4:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Wright>Smith
4:Simpson>Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Wright
4:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
4:Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>Smith
4:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
4:Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
4:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
4:Montroll>Kiss>Wright>Simpson
4:Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Simpson
4:Montroll>Smith>Wright>Simpson
4:Montroll>Smith>Wright>WriteIn
4:Wright>Smith>WriteIn
4:Smith>Wright>Simpson
4:Wright>Montroll>WriteIn
4:Kiss>WriteIn
4:Montroll>Simpson
3:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
3:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Wright>WriteIn
3:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Wright>Montroll
3:Kiss>Simpson>Wright>Montroll>Smith
3:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
3:Montroll>Wright>Kiss>Simpson>Smith
3:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
3:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson
3:Smith>Wright>Simpson>Montroll
3:Smith>Wright>Montroll>Simpson
3:Wright>Simpson>WriteIn
3:Montroll>Wright>Simpson
3:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
3:Wright>Montroll>Simpson
3:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
3:Simpson>Wright
3:Simpson>Kiss
3:WriteIn>Montroll
3:WriteIn>Wright
3:WriteIn>Kiss
3:Simpson
2:Wright>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Smith
2:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Wright
2:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Wright>Montroll
2:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Smith
2:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Smith>Montroll
2:Montroll>Smith>Wright>WriteIn>Kiss
2:Wright>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
2:Smith>Wright>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
2:Wright>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
2:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Wright>WriteIn
2:Montroll>Smith>Wright>Simpson>WriteIn
2:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Simpson
2:Montroll>Simpson>Wright>Kiss>Smith
2:Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
2:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Wright>Smith
2:Smith>Simpson>Wright>Montroll>Kiss
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
2:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
2:Montroll>Simpson>Wright>Smith>Kiss
2:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Wright
2:Smith>Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
2:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
2:Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
2:Kiss>Montroll>Wright>WriteIn
2:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Wright
2:Wright>WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss
2:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Simpson
2:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Simpson
2:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Wright
2:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Smith
2:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
2:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Wright
2:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn
2:Kiss>Wright>Simpson
2:Montroll>Simpson>Wright
2:Smith>Simpson>Kiss
2:Smith>Simpson>Wright
2:Kiss>Simpson>Wright
2:Smith>Wright>WriteIn
2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith
2:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
2:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
1:Wright>Simpson>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Wright>Simpson>Smith
1:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Wright>Simpson
1:Wright>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Wright
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
1:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Wright>WriteIn
1:Wright>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
1:Kiss>Wright>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Simpson>Wright>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Kiss>Simpson>Wright>Smith>Montroll
1:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Wright
1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss
1:Wright>Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Wright
1:WriteIn>Wright>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
1:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Montroll>Wright>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
1:Wright>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
1:Smith>Simpson>Wright>Kiss>Montroll
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
1:Simpson>Wright>Kiss>Smith>Montroll
1:Wright>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
1:Smith>Montroll>Wright>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll>Wright
1:Montroll>Wright>Simpson>Kiss>Smith
1:WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Wright>Montroll
1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Wright
1:Montroll>Wright>WriteIn>Simpson>Kiss
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Wright>Smith>Simpson
1:Smith>Kiss>Wright>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Wright>WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
1:Simpson>Kiss>Wright>Montroll>Smith
1:Simpson>Montroll>Wright>Smith>Kiss
1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith
1:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Wright>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Wright>WriteIn
1:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn>Wright
1:Simpson>Smith>Wright>Montroll>Kiss
1:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Wright>Simpson
1:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Wright
1:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Wright>WriteIn
1:Wright>Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
1:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Smith
1:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Wright>WriteIn
1:Smith>Wright>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
1:Wright>Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss
1:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>WriteIn
1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Wright>Kiss
1:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Wright>Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll
1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss
1:Wright>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Wright>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Simpson>Montroll>Smith>Wright>Kiss
1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
1:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Wright
1:Wright>Montroll>Simpson>Smith
1:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Montroll
1:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
1:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Wright
1:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Smith
1:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Kiss>Wright>Montroll
1:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Wright
1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll
1:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Wright
1:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Wright
1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Wright
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith
1:Wright>Simpson>Montroll>Smith
1:Montroll>Simpson>Wright>Kiss
1:Kiss>Smith>Wright>Simpson
1:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
1:Wright>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Wright>Smith>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Wright
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith
1:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Wright
1:Wright>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
1:Smith>Montroll>Wright>Simpson
1:Kiss>Wright>Simpson>Montroll
1:Smith>Kiss>Wright>Simpson
1:Montroll>Wright>Smith>WriteIn
1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
1:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss>Wright
1:Montroll>Wright>WriteIn
1:Wright>Simpson>Montroll
1:Wright>Simpson>Kiss
1:WriteIn>Kiss>Montroll
1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll
1:Simpson>Smith>Kiss
1:Simpson>Smith>Wright
1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
1:Simpson>Montroll>Smith
1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Wright>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Wright>WriteIn>Simpson
1:Wright>WriteIn>Kiss
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll
1:Kiss>WriteIn>Wright
1:Simpson>WriteIn
1:Smith>WriteIn
1:WriteIn>Smith
What the engine says¶
Where the votes went. Band thickness is votes; a band leaving an eliminated candidate lands on whoever that ballot ranked next, or on inactive if it ranked nobody who was left.
The count, step by step — the rounds and how the winner is reached:
--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
Burlington 2009, the raise — 750 Wright voters rank Kiss first, and Kiss loses
Tabulating 8974 ballots (ranked ballots).
ROUND 1
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
Kiss 3335 Hopeful
Wright 2200 Hopeful
Montroll 2062 Hopeful
Smith 1306 Rejected
WriteIn 36 Rejected
Simpson 35 Rejected
ROUND 2
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
Kiss 3731 Hopeful
Montroll 2553 Hopeful
Wright 2543 Rejected
Smith 0 Rejected
WriteIn 0 Rejected
Simpson 0 Rejected
Blank Votes 147 Rejected
FINAL RESULT
Candidate Votes Status
----------- ------- --------
Montroll 4063 Elected
Kiss 3945 Rejected
Wright 0 Rejected
Smith 0 Rejected
WriteIn 0 Rejected
Simpson 0 Rejected
Blank Votes 966 Rejected
Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
Montroll
Full audit — preference matrix, Condorcet, and score distribution¶
--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
Smith set (1 of 6): Montroll
Outside (5): Kiss, Wright, Smith, Simpson, WriteIn
One member ⇒ Montroll is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
RCV-IRV winner Montroll is INSIDE the Smith set. ✓
Not guaranteed — RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient — but it holds here.
More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md
Everything in one file: the _tabulated mirror (regenerated on every run; every analysis forced on).
Run it yourself:
python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/starvote_larry_hastings.py method_comparisons/burlington_2009/cases/burlington_2009_raise_kiss_nonmono.yaml
See also¶
More cases in this set: burlington_2009_irv · burlington_2009_ranked_robin