election_title: "Burlington 2009 mayor, Wright deleted from every ballot — RCV-IRV now elects Montroll"
paradoxes: [condorcet-winner]
scenario_description: |-
  The spoiler counterfactual, on the real ballots. Take
  burlington_2009_irv.yaml — the certified 2009 Burlington profile, PrefLib
  dataset 00005 — and strike KURT WRIGHT, who did not win, out of every ballot.
  Nothing else changes: no voter is given a preference they did not express and
  no ballot is reordered. The 840 Wright-only bullet ballots have nothing left
  to say and exhaust, leaving 8,134 tabulated.
  RCV-IRV now elects ANDY MONTROLL, 4063-3476 over Kiss — the same two numbers
  the full election's own pairwise matrix already reported for Montroll-vs-Kiss,
  because with Wright gone the instant runoff IS that head-to-head. In the real
  election IRV elected Kiss. So a losing candidate decided the outcome: an
  Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives failure on a certified municipal
  result.
  Note what this case is NOT. Wright (R) is not "similar" to Montroll (D), so
  this is not vote-splitting between allies — it is the plain IIA test, and it
  is the direct check on the claim that RCV "satisfies ... the Independence of
  Irrelevant Alternatives ... criteria". For the version that is ALSO a
  same-side spoiler, see the Alaska 2022 pair in ../../alaska_2022/cases/.
  Reading it fairly: a real Wright withdrawal would have changed the campaign
  and who turned out. This is the STRICT criterion test — hold the ballots
  fixed, remove one candidate — which is what IIA asks and all a certified
  ballot record can honestly support.
  Lesson: ../README.md · claim check: ../../fairvote_comparison_table/README.md
voting_method: RCV_IRV
num_winners: 1
lh_only_reason: "A counterfactual profile — 8,134 weighted ballots that were never cast in this form. Publishing it as a live BetterVoting election would present a hypothetical as a real contest."
ballots: |-
  458:Kiss>Montroll
  472:Kiss
  488:Smith
  528:Montroll
  345:Kiss>Montroll>Smith
  326:Montroll>Kiss
  405:Montroll>Smith
  242:Montroll>Kiss>Smith
  171:Kiss>Smith
  445:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
  299:Smith>Montroll
  185:Kiss>Smith>Montroll
  206:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
  204:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith
  349:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
  273:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
  257:Montroll>Smith>Kiss
  166:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
  154:Smith>Kiss>Montroll
  198:Smith>Montroll>Kiss
  248:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
  101:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
  330:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
  198:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
  57:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson
  108:Smith>Kiss
  65:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith
  31:Simpson
  48:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith
  61:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
  50:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
  23:Kiss>Simpson
  51:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
  28:Smith>Simpson
  18:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll
  29:Smith>Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
  20:Kiss>Smith>Simpson
  30:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>Montroll
  18:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson
  13:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>Kiss
  24:WriteIn
  14:Simpson>Smith>Kiss>Montroll
  19:Smith>Montroll>Simpson
  9:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
  21:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>Smith
  9:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
  12:Montroll>Simpson>Smith
  9:Simpson>Smith
  10:Kiss>Simpson>Smith
  25:Montroll>Smith>Simpson
  12:Montroll>Simpson>Kiss
  9:Smith>Kiss>Simpson
  6:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
  6:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
  5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
  7:Simpson>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
  14:Smith>Simpson>Montroll
  10:Montroll>WriteIn
  4:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
  4:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>Smith
  4:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
  4:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
  5:Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
  7:Smith>WriteIn
  5:Kiss>WriteIn
  12:Montroll>Simpson
  3:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
  5:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn
  3:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
  3:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
  3:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson
  4:Simpson>WriteIn
  4:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
  3:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
  4:Simpson>Kiss
  4:WriteIn>Montroll
  4:WriteIn>Kiss
  7:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>Smith
  5:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
  2:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
  2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Smith
  2:Montroll>Smith>WriteIn>Kiss
  2:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
  2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss
  2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss
  2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
  4:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
  3:Montroll>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
  2:Montroll>Kiss>Smith>WriteIn>Simpson
  2:Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
  2:WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss
  2:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
  2:Smith>Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
  4:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
  3:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss
  2:Kiss>Smith>WriteIn
  3:Smith>Simpson>Kiss
  2:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith
  2:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll
  1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
  1:Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith
  1:Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
  1:Simpson>Smith>WriteIn>Montroll
  1:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
  1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Simpson
  1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
  1:WriteIn>Kiss>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
  3:Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
  1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Kiss
  1:Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn
  1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss
  1:Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
  1:WriteIn>Smith>Simpson>Montroll
  1:Montroll>Smith>Kiss>WriteIn
  1:Simpson>Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn
  1:Smith>Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn
  1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
  1:Smith>WriteIn>Montroll>Simpson
  1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
  3:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll
  1:WriteIn>Montroll>Smith>Simpson
  2:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
  1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll
  1:WriteIn>Smith>Kiss>Montroll
  1:Smith>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss
  1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Kiss
  1:Kiss>WriteIn>Smith>Simpson
  1:Smith>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
  1:Kiss>Smith>Simpson>WriteIn>Montroll
  1:WriteIn>Smith>Montroll>Simpson
  1:Montroll>Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith
  1:Simpson>Kiss>Montroll>WriteIn
  2:Kiss>Simpson>Smith>WriteIn
  1:Montroll>Kiss>WriteIn>Simpson
  2:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
  1:WriteIn>Simpson>Montroll>Kiss
  2:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>WriteIn
  1:Kiss>Simpson>Montroll>Smith>WriteIn
  1:WriteIn>Montroll>Kiss>Smith>Simpson
  1:Montroll>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss
  1:Smith>Montroll>Simpson>Kiss>WriteIn
  1:Montroll>Simpson>WriteIn>Smith>Kiss
  1:Smith>Montroll>WriteIn>Kiss
  1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith>Montroll>WriteIn
  2:WriteIn>Kiss>Montroll
  1:Simpson>Kiss>Smith
  1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll>Smith
  2:Simpson>Montroll>Smith
  1:Smith>WriteIn>Montroll
  1:Smith>WriteIn>Simpson
  1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson>Smith
  1:Simpson>Montroll
  1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn
  1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll
  1:Simpson>Smith>Kiss
  1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn
  1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson
  1:WriteIn>Simpson
  1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll
  1:WriteIn>Smith
expected_winners:
  - Montroll