Alaska 2022 US House special (reduced model) — STAR & Ranked Robin elect Begich, the Condorcet winner RCV-IRV cut¶
Generated from bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022.yaml — do not edit by hand. Regenerate: python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_yaml_pages.py.
Method: STAR (single winner) · 1 seat · Expected winner: Begich
▶ Live on BetterVoting: vote · results ↗ (election k3fmwv · test BV2213).
Scenario¶
A reduced 200-voter TEACHING MODEL of the August 2022 Alaska US House special election (Peltola / Begich / Palin) — not the real vote data, but a faithful ~943:1 scaling of the official preference profile in Table 1 of Graham-Squire & McCune, "An Examination of Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022" (arXiv:2301.12075); all nine ballot types match the paper. One electorate, FOUR counts. First choices: Peltola 80, Palin 63, Begich 57 — so Choose-One (Plurality) elects Peltola. RCV-IRV eliminates Begich (fewest first choices), 12 ballots exhaust, and Peltola beats Palin 96-92 — also Peltola. But Begich is the Condorcet winner (beats Peltola 93-84 and Palin 107-68), so Ranked Robin and STAR both elect Begich — the broadly-preferred centrist IRV's first-choice elimination threw out (the center squeeze). Same ballots, four counts, two winners; IRV is the lone method that fails the Condorcet winner. Scores are a rank->score modeling overlay (favorite 5, then 4/3, unranked 0). Real ballots & every headline figure: the paper above; Equal Vote's Real RCV visualizer: realrcv.equal.vote/alaska22. Live results (BV2213, all four races): https://bettervoting.com/k3fmwv/results Lesson: README.md
Ballots¶
Row 1 = candidate names; each later row is one voter's 0–5 scores (a N × prefix = N identical ballots).
Peltola, Begich, Palin
5,0,0
5,0,0
5,0,0
5,0,0
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5,0,0
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5,0,4
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5,0,4
0,5,0
0,5,0
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0,0,5
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4,3,5
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0,4,5
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0,4,5
What the engine says¶
The count, step by step — the rounds and how the winner is reached:
[Divergence from STAR]
STAR = Begich
Choose-One (Plurality) = Peltola (differs from STAR)
RCV-IRV = Peltola (differs from STAR)
Note: no ballots had tied scores, so RCV-IRV vs STAR here is a genuine
method difference, not a tie-breaking artifact.
Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone
outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature.
Full round-by-round reports (generated for review):
RCV-IRV rounds: cases_tabulated/bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022_RCV-IRV_tabulated.txt
--- STAR Voting Method (single winner) ---
[STAR Voting]
Tabulating 200 ballots.
Count × Peltola,Begich,Palin
50 × 5, 4, 0
36 × 0, 4, 5
29 × 0, 5, 4
25 × 5, 0, 0
23 × 0, 0, 5
16 × 4, 5, 0
12 × 0, 5, 0
5 × 5, 0, 4
4 × 4, 3, 5
[STAR Voting: Scoring Round]
The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round.
Begich -- 641 -- First place
Peltola -- 480 -- Second place
Palin -- 451
Begich and Peltola advance.
[STAR Voting: Automatic Runoff Round]
The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins.
Begich -- 93 -- First place
Peltola -- 84
Equal Support -- 23
Begich wins.
Runoff math:
200 ballots cast
− 23 Equal Support (no preference between the two finalists)
───
177 voters with a preference (majority = 89)
Begich 93 (53%) · Peltola 84 (47%)
[STAR Voting: Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)]
Begich
Full audit — preference matrix, Condorcet, and score distribution¶
--- Runoff (Preference) Matrix ---
Head-to-head / pairwise comparison
Legend: For - Equal Support - Against
* indicates Top 2 Finalist
| * Peltola | * Begich | Palin |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Peltola > | --- | 84 - 23 - 93 | 96 - 12 - 92 |
* Begich > | 93 - 23 - 84 | --- |107 - 25 - 68 |
Palin > | 92 - 12 - 96 | 68 - 25 - 107 | --- |
[Condorcet Winner]
Condorcet Winner: Begich — matches the STAR winner
[Condorcet Loser]
Condorcet Loser: Palin — loses every head-to-head matchup
[Score Distribution] (how many ballots gave each star rating)
Score
Candidate 5 4 3 2 1 0 | Total Avg
Peltola 80 20 0 0 0 100 | 480 2.4
Begich 57 86 4 0 0 53 | 641 3.2
Palin 63 34 0 0 0 103 | 451 2.3
Everything in one file: the _tabulated mirror (regenerated on every run; every analysis forced on).
Run it yourself:
python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/starvote_larry_hastings.py method_comparisons/alaska_2022/cases/bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022.yaml
See also¶
- Methods disagree on this election — its entry in the divergence review ledger
- Center squeeze (topic hub)
- Condorcet efficiency (topic hub)
- Exhausted ballots (untangled)
- Glossary · all cases by method