====================================================================== SOURCE FILE: bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022.yaml TABULATED FILE: bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022_tabulated.txt ====================================================================== bv_test_id: BV2213 bv_election_id: k3fmwv bv_results_url: https://bettervoting.com/k3fmwv/results election_title: "Alaska 2022 US House special (reduced model) — STAR & Ranked Robin elect Begich, the Condorcet winner RCV-IRV cut" paradoxes: [condorcet-winner] scenario_description: |- A reduced 200-voter TEACHING MODEL of the August 2022 Alaska US House special election (Peltola / Begich / Palin) — not the real vote data, but a faithful ~943:1 scaling of the official preference profile in Table 1 of Graham-Squire & McCune, "An Examination of Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022" (arXiv:2301.12075); all nine ballot types match the paper. One electorate, FOUR counts. First choices: Peltola 80, Palin 63, Begich 57 — so Choose-One (Plurality) elects Peltola. RCV-IRV eliminates Begich (fewest first choices), 12 ballots exhaust, and Peltola beats Palin 96-92 — also Peltola. But Begich is the Condorcet winner (beats Peltola 93-84 and Palin 107-68), so Ranked Robin and STAR both elect Begich — the broadly-preferred centrist IRV's first-choice elimination threw out (the center squeeze). Same ballots, four counts, two winners; IRV is the lone method that fails the Condorcet winner. Scores are a rank->score modeling overlay (favorite 5, then 4/3, unranked 0). Real ballots & every headline figure: the paper above; Equal Vote's Real RCV visualizer: realrcv.equal.vote/alaska22. Live results (BV2213, all four races): https://bettervoting.com/k3fmwv/results Lesson: README.md voting_method: STAR num_winners: 1 ballots: |- Peltola, Begich, Palin 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,0,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,4,0 5,0,4 5,0,4 5,0,4 5,0,4 5,0,4 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 0,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 4,5,0 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,5,4 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 0,0,5 4,3,5 4,3,5 4,3,5 4,3,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 0,4,5 expected_winners: - Begich # file: bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022.yaml ====================================================================== TABULATION RESULTS ====================================================================== === Alaska 2022 US House special (reduced model) — STAR & Ranked Robin elect Begich, the Condorcet winner RCV-IRV cut === A reduced 200-voter TEACHING MODEL of the August 2022 Alaska US House special election (Peltola / Begich / Palin) — not the real vote data, but a faithful ~943:1 scaling of the official preference profile in Table 1 of Graham-Squire & McCune, "An Examination of Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022" (arXiv:2301.12075); all nine ballot types match the paper. One electorate, FOUR counts. First choices: Peltola 80, Palin 63, Begich 57 — so Choose-One (Plurality) elects Peltola. RCV-IRV eliminates Begich (fewest first choices), 12 ballots exhaust, and Peltola beats Palin 96-92 — also Peltola. But Begich is the Condorcet winner (beats Peltola 93-84 and Palin 107-68), so Ranked Robin and STAR both elect Begich — the broadly-preferred centrist IRV's first-choice elimination threw out (the center squeeze). Same ballots, four counts, two winners; IRV is the lone method that fails the Condorcet winner. Scores are a rank->score modeling overlay (favorite 5, then 4/3, unranked 0). Real ballots & every headline figure: the paper above; Equal Vote's Real RCV visualizer: realrcv.equal.vote/alaska22. Live results (BV2213, all four races): https://bettervoting.com/k3fmwv/results Lesson: README.md --- Runoff (Preference) Matrix --- Head-to-head / pairwise comparison Legend: For - Equal Support - Against * indicates Top 2 Finalist | * Peltola | * Begich | Palin | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Peltola > | --- | 84 - 23 - 93 | 96 - 12 - 92 | * Begich > | 93 - 23 - 84 | --- |107 - 25 - 68 | Palin > | 92 - 12 - 96 | 68 - 25 - 107 | --- | [Condorcet Winner] Condorcet Winner: Begich — matches the STAR winner [Condorcet Loser] Condorcet Loser: Palin — loses every head-to-head matchup [Divergence from STAR] STAR = Begich Choose-One (Plurality) = Peltola (differs from STAR) RCV-IRV = Peltola (differs from STAR) Note: no ballots had tied scores, so RCV-IRV vs STAR here is a genuine method difference, not a tie-breaking artifact. Note: Ranked Robin (RCV-RR) agrees with STAR, so RCV-IRV is the lone outlier — the classic center-squeeze signature. Full round-by-round reports (generated for review): RCV-IRV rounds: cases_tabulated/bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022_RCV-IRV_tabulated.txt --- STAR Voting Method (single winner) --- [STAR Voting] Tabulating 200 ballots. Count × Peltola,Begich,Palin 50 × 5, 4, 0 36 × 0, 4, 5 29 × 0, 5, 4 25 × 5, 0, 0 23 × 0, 0, 5 16 × 4, 5, 0 12 × 0, 5, 0 5 × 5, 0, 4 4 × 4, 3, 5 [Score Distribution] (how many ballots gave each star rating) Score Candidate 5 4 3 2 1 0 | Total Avg Peltola 80 20 0 0 0 100 | 480 2.4 Begich 57 86 4 0 0 53 | 641 3.2 Palin 63 34 0 0 0 103 | 451 2.3 [STAR Voting: Scoring Round] The two highest-scoring candidates advance to the next round. Begich -- 641 -- First place Peltola -- 480 -- Second place Palin -- 451 Begich and Peltola advance. [STAR Voting: Automatic Runoff Round] The candidate preferred in the most head-to-head matchups wins. Begich -- 93 -- First place Peltola -- 84 Equal Support -- 23 Begich wins. Runoff math: 200 ballots cast − 23 Equal Support (no preference between the two finalists) ─── 177 voters with a preference (majority = 89) Begich 93 (53%) · Peltola 84 (47%) [STAR Voting: Winner — STAR Voting Method (single winner)] Begich