Upward monotonicity (Alaska 2022) — BEFORE: Peltola wins¶

Generated from alaska_upward_before.yaml — do not edit by hand. Regenerate: python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/tools_adam/scripts/build_yaml_pages.py.

Method: RCV-IRV (Instant Runoff) · 1 seat · Expected winner: Peltola

Scenario¶

The real Alaska 2022 US House special, reduced ~960:1 to a faithful 200-voter model (the same profile as method_comparisons/alaska_2022 and the burial case). Counted by RCV-IRV: Begich has the fewest first-choices and is eliminated first, his ballots split, and Peltola wins the final round 96-92. This is the BEFORE half of an upward-monotonicity pair — the winner is Peltola. In the AFTER file (alaska_upward_after), 7 Palin-only ballots are changed to Peltola>Palin, GIVING THE WINNER MORE FIRST-PLACE SUPPORT — and Peltola then LOSES. Ranking the winner higher turns her into a loser: the upward monotonicity paradox (Graham-Squire & McCune, arXiv:2301.12075). Companion page: upward_monotonicity_alaska.md.

Ballots¶

Each row is one voter's ranking, most-preferred first (N: prefix = N identical ballots).

50:Peltola>Begich>Palin
36:Palin>Begich>Peltola
29:Begich>Palin>Peltola
25:Peltola
23:Palin
16:Begich>Peltola>Palin
12:Begich
5:Peltola>Palin>Begich
4:Palin>Peltola>Begich

What the engine says¶

Round-by-round Sankey diagram: each candidate's votes as a band, and where the votes of an eliminated candidate transferred to.

Where the votes went. Band thickness is votes; a band leaving an eliminated candidate lands on whoever that ballot ranked next, or on inactive if it ranked nobody who was left.

The count, step by step — the rounds and how the winner is reached:

--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
  Upward monotonicity (Alaska 2022) — BEFORE: Peltola wins
 Tabulating 200 ballots (ranked ballots).

ROUND 1
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Peltola           80  Hopeful
Palin             63  Hopeful
Begich            57  Rejected

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Peltola           96  Elected
Palin             92  Rejected
Begich             0  Rejected
Blank Votes       12  Rejected


Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
  Peltola

Full audit — preference matrix, Condorcet, and score distribution¶

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (1 of 3): Begich
   Outside (2):        Peltola, Palin
   One member ⇒ Begich is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
   RCV-IRV winner Peltola is OUTSIDE the Smith set. ✗
      Every member of the set (Begich) beats Peltola head-to-head, yet
      RCV-IRV elected Peltola anyway. RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient (nor
      Condorcet-efficient) — this is the shape a center squeeze leaves behind.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md

Everything in one file: the _tabulated mirror (regenerated on every run; every analysis forced on).

Run it yourself:

python STARVote_LH_tabulation_engine/starvote_larry_hastings.py method_comparisons/monotonicity/cases/alaska_upward_before.yaml

Upward monotonicity (Alaska 2022) — BEFORE: Peltola wins¶

Scenario¶

Ballots¶

What the engine says¶

Full audit — preference matrix, Condorcet, and score distribution¶

See also¶