====================================================================== SOURCE FILE: burlington_2009_irv.yaml TABULATED FILE: burlington_2009_irv_tabulated.txt ====================================================================== election_title: "Burlington 2009 mayor — RCV-IRV: the real center squeeze (Kiss wins, the Condorcet winner is third)" paradoxes: [condorcet-winner] scenario_description: |- The most-cited real IRV failure, reproduced from the real ballots. Round 1: Wright (R) 2950, Kiss (P) 2585, Montroll (D) 2062, Smith 1306. Montroll — the Condorcet winner, who beats every rival head-to-head — is squeezed out in the semifinal (Wright 3293, Kiss 2981, Montroll 2553); the final elects Kiss 4313-4059 over Wright. Three counts, three winners from these same ballots: Plurality Wright, RCV-IRV Kiss, any Condorcet method Montroll (see the companion Ranked Robin file). Lesson page: README.md in this folder. Real ballots: PrefLib dataset 00005 (00005-00000002.toi, 8,980 ballots, 384 unique orders; from Burlington's published election records). 6 ballots (0.07%) carrying equal-rank overvotes are not representable in this ranked syntax and are excluded — 8,974 tabulated; every official figure reproduces within +/-1 and every margin is hundreds of votes. voting_method: RCV_IRV num_winners: 1 ballots: |- 840:Wright 355:Kiss>Montroll 326:Kiss 271:Wright>Smith 256:Wright>Montroll 234:Kiss>Montroll>Smith 200:Montroll>Kiss 178:Montroll 147:Wright>Montroll>Smith 145:Montroll>Kiss>Smith 139:Montroll>Smith 125:Kiss>Smith 124:Smith 123:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Wright>Simpson 122:Wright>Smith>Montroll 121:Kiss>Smith>Montroll 120:Kiss>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Wright 104:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Simpson>Kiss 103:Kiss>Montroll>Simpson>Smith>Wright 102:Wright>Montroll>Smith>Kiss>Simpson 101:Wright>Smith>Montroll>Kiss>Simpson 94:Montroll>Wright 93:Montroll>Smith>Kiss 93:Smith>Wright 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1:Montroll>Wright>WriteIn 1:Wright>Simpson>Montroll 1:Wright>Simpson>Kiss 1:WriteIn>Kiss>Montroll 1:Smith>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Simpson>Smith>Montroll 1:Simpson>Smith>Kiss 1:Simpson>Smith>Wright 1:Kiss>Simpson>WriteIn 1:Simpson>Montroll>Smith 1:Montroll>WriteIn>Simpson 1:Wright>WriteIn>Montroll 1:Wright>WriteIn>Simpson 1:Wright>WriteIn>Kiss 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Montroll 1:Kiss>WriteIn>Wright 1:Simpson>WriteIn 1:Smith>WriteIn 1:WriteIn>Smith expected_winners: - Kiss # file: burlington_2009_irv.yaml ====================================================================== TABULATION RESULTS ====================================================================== --- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) --- Burlington 2009 mayor — RCV-IRV: the real center squeeze (Kiss wins, the Condorcet winner is third) Tabulating 8974 ballots (ranked ballots). ROUND 1 Candidate Votes Status ----------- ------- -------- Wright 2950 Hopeful Kiss 2585 Hopeful Montroll 2062 Hopeful Smith 1306 Rejected WriteIn 36 Rejected Simpson 35 Rejected ROUND 2 Candidate Votes Status ----------- ------- -------- Wright 3293 Hopeful Kiss 2981 Hopeful Montroll 2553 Rejected Smith 0 Rejected WriteIn 0 Rejected Simpson 0 Rejected Blank Votes 147 Rejected FINAL RESULT Candidate Votes Status ----------- ------- -------- Kiss 4313 Elected Wright 4059 Rejected Montroll 0 Rejected Smith 0 Rejected WriteIn 0 Rejected Simpson 0 Rejected Blank Votes 602 Rejected Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) Kiss --- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) --- The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it — the honest answer to "who is even in contention?". Smith set (1 of 6): Montroll Outside (5): Wright, Kiss, Smith, Simpson, WriteIn One member ⇒ Montroll is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head. RCV-IRV winner Kiss is OUTSIDE the Smith set. ✗ Every member of the set (Montroll) beats Kiss head-to-head, yet RCV-IRV elected Kiss anyway. RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient (nor Condorcet-efficient) — this is the shape a center squeeze leaves behind. More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md