======================================================================
SOURCE FILE:     alaska_2022_irv_with_palin.yaml
TABULATED FILE:  alaska_2022_irv_with_palin_tabulated.txt
======================================================================

election_title: "Alaska 2022 special (reduced model), ranked ballots — RCV-IRV with all three candidates: Peltola wins"
paradoxes: [condorcet-winner]
scenario_description: |-
  The IIA / spoiler baseline. This is the SAME 200-voter reduced model of the
  August 2022 Alaska US House special election as the STAR case in this folder
  (bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022.yaml), written as the ranked profile it came from —
  the nine ballot types of Table 1 in Graham-Squire & McCune, "An Examination of
  Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022" (arXiv:2301.12075),
  scaled ~943:1. Nothing is added: the score file's 5/4/3 levels ARE these
  rankings.
  First choices: Peltola 80, Palin 63, Begich 57. RCV-IRV eliminates Begich,
  12 ballots exhaust, and Peltola beats Palin 96-92. Winner: Peltola.
  Its twin — alaska_2022_irv_without_palin.yaml — deletes Palin from every
  ballot and changes nothing else. Begich then wins 93-84. Palin lost, and her
  presence decided who won: an Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives failure
  on a real federal race, which is the claim-check behind
  method_comparisons/fairvote_comparison_table/README.md.
  Lesson: ../README.md
voting_method: RCV_IRV
num_winners: 1
lh_only_reason: "The ranked half of a BV-backed pair — the same electorate is already live on BetterVoting as BV2213 (k3fmwv) in its score form. This file exists to make the with/without-Palin counterfactual runnable, and its twin is a counterfactual profile that was never cast, so neither belongs on BV."
ballots: |-
  50:Peltola>Begich
  36:Palin>Begich
  29:Begich>Palin
  25:Peltola
  23:Palin
  16:Begich>Peltola
  12:Begich
  5:Peltola>Palin
  4:Palin>Peltola>Begich
expected_winners:
  - Peltola

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TABULATION RESULTS
======================================================================

--- RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner) ---
  Alaska 2022 special (reduced model), ranked ballots — RCV-IRV with all three candidates: Peltola wins
 Tabulating 200 ballots (ranked ballots).

ROUND 1
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Peltola           80  Hopeful
Palin             63  Hopeful
Begich            57  Rejected

FINAL RESULT
Candidate      Votes  Status
-----------  -------  --------
Peltola           96  Elected
Palin             92  Rejected
Begich             0  Rejected
Blank Votes       12  Rejected


Winner(s) — RCV / Instant-Runoff Voting (single winner)
  Peltola

--- Transfers and inactive ballots (what the round tables leave out) ---
The tables above give each candidate's round total but not where a
transferred vote came FROM, nor how many ballots stopped counting.
Both are recomputed from the ballots, using the eliminations the
count above actually made.

ROUND 1 — 200 of 200 ballots still active; majority = 101
   Begich eliminated with 57:
      → Palin                    29
      → Peltola                  16
      → (no continuing ranking)     12  ← these ballots go inactive

FINAL ROUND — 188 of 200 ballots still active (12 inactive); majority = 95
   Peltola                  96  (51.1% of the still-active)  ← elected
   Palin                    92  (48.9% of the still-active)
   Never exhausted, never transferred:
      40 ballots held by Palin carried a lower ranking that was never read
      (the count stopped here, so those preferences did nothing).

Inactive ballots at the final round: 12 of 200 (6.0%).
   Peltola's 96 is a majority of the 188 still active but only 48.0% of all 200 cast —
   the 'majority' here is of a shrunken denominator. See
   06_Other/RCV_IRV/concepts/RCV_IRV_exhausted_ballots.md

--- Smith Set (the generalized Condorcet winner) ---
The smallest group whose every member beats every candidate outside it —
the honest answer to "who is even in contention?".
   Smith set (1 of 3): Begich
   Outside (2):        Peltola, Palin
   One member ⇒ Begich is the Condorcet winner, beating every rival head-to-head.
   RCV-IRV winner Peltola is OUTSIDE the Smith set. ✗
      Every member of the set (Begich) beats Peltola head-to-head, yet
      RCV-IRV elected Peltola anyway. RCV-IRV is not Smith-efficient (nor
      Condorcet-efficient) — this is the shape a center squeeze leaves behind.
   More: 07_Concepts/topics/smith_set.md