election_title: "Alaska 2022 special (reduced model), ranked ballots — RCV-IRV with all three candidates: Peltola wins"
paradoxes: [condorcet-winner]
scenario_description: |-
  The IIA / spoiler baseline. This is the SAME 200-voter reduced model of the
  August 2022 Alaska US House special election as the STAR case in this folder
  (bv2213_k3fmwv_alaska_2022.yaml), written as the ranked profile it came from —
  the nine ballot types of Table 1 in Graham-Squire & McCune, "An Examination of
  Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022" (arXiv:2301.12075),
  scaled ~943:1. Nothing is added: the score file's 5/4/3 levels ARE these
  rankings.
  First choices: Peltola 80, Palin 63, Begich 57. RCV-IRV eliminates Begich,
  12 ballots exhaust, and Peltola beats Palin 96-92. Winner: Peltola.
  Its twin — alaska_2022_irv_without_palin.yaml — deletes Palin from every
  ballot and changes nothing else. Begich then wins 93-84. Palin lost, and her
  presence decided who won: an Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives failure
  on a real federal race, which is the claim-check behind
  method_comparisons/fairvote_comparison_table/README.md.
  Lesson: ../README.md
voting_method: RCV_IRV
num_winners: 1
lh_only_reason: "The ranked half of a BV-backed pair — the same electorate is already live on BetterVoting as BV2213 (k3fmwv) in its score form. This file exists to make the with/without-Palin counterfactual runnable, and its twin is a counterfactual profile that was never cast, so neither belongs on BV."
ballots: |-
  50:Peltola>Begich
  36:Palin>Begich
  29:Begich>Palin
  25:Peltola
  23:Palin
  16:Begich>Peltola
  12:Begich
  5:Peltola>Palin
  4:Palin>Peltola>Begich
expected_winners:
  - Peltola